Are biofuel crops an alternative for North East farmers?

In the post of Wednesday, August 03, 2005, Are we ready for Ethanol in our petrol?, I ended the article with,"Many local farmers have been searching for a new crop to boost their income and the local economy. Maybe ethanol producing crops are the answer. It is certainly a ground floor opportunity to replace crops such as tobacco throughout the North East region.".

If you thought that was amusing, let me show you the value of such an idea.

The US Department of Energy is interested enough in the Peak-Oil debate to commission a report on the subject. Released in February this year by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), and titled “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management,” the report examines the likely consequences of the impending global peak. It was authored principally by Robert L Hirsch and is now available on the Internet in pdf format here.

On the subject of biofuels and ethanol, the Hirsch Report said:-

Bioethanol is produced as a transportation fuel largely in only two countries. In 2003 the US produced about 2.8 billion gallons and Brazil produced 3.5 billion gallons. All of this ethanol is produced by conversion of starch to sugar and fermentation to ethanol. In the US ethanol represents about 1.4% of the BTU content (2.0% by volume) of gasoline used in transportation. Current costs for ethanol production in the US are said to be $0.90 per gallon,148 which is equivalent to a gasoline price of $1.35 per gallon. Because of recent increases in energy costs current costs will be somewhat higher. Grain ethanol provides only a modest net energy gain because of the energy required to produce it. USDA calculated a net energy gain of 34% for a modern corn to ethanol plant, but there is considerable controversy over the real efficiency of the process. Most of the energy used to produce ethanol comes from natural gas and electricity. The production of ethanol uses only about 5% of the corn crop in the US. Significant expansion is possible but at some point there might be an impact on food prices.

Cellulosic ethanol is currently being produced only in two rather small pilot plants but is capable of producing about 40% conversion of cellulosic biomass to ethanol while providing all the energy needed for the process and exporting a modest amount of energy as electricity. It is anticipated that successful research may reduce the cost of cellulosic ethanol to about $1.10 per gallon by 2010. If this occurs the potential ethanol to mitigate peaking is high. Using only waste biomass and grass grown on land currently in the conservation reserve could produce 50 billion gallons of ethanol which would be equivalent to 35 billion gallons of gasoline or 17% of current US consumption. This could be achieved without any impact on current food production and at prices only $ 0.35 per gallon higher than refinery prices for gasoline. Since ethanol has an RON of 130 and a MON of 96 it raises the octane of the gasoline to which it is added and has a premium value as a result.

... give it some thought!

This topic will be revisited while oil prices remain over $65/barrel

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