OLAWKI - acronym coined for bird flu effects

On the Sunday program (2 Oct 05) the Federal health Minister, Tony Abbot, suggested that if the bird flu happens, "Ordinary Life As We Know It would cease ...". ... full transcript here

The phrase "The end of the World as we know it" (TEOTWAWKI) was created for the Y2K crisis. We survived that one but this time around, there is no definitive date and the problem is not technological. Yet the consequences can be more devasting. Not only is social order subject to breaking down, but the flu could kill between 13,000 to 42,000 people in Australia and put between 60,000 and 148,000 in hospital.

The Government has enough of the anti-viral drugs Relenza and Tamiflu for just four million doses — a substantial amount, but enough for only 20 percent of the population. And of that stockpile, 90 percent will be reserved for those engaged in essential services.

If a pandemic strikes, the decisions made behind closed doors inside government about who gets those valuable drugs is fast becoming a major political hot potato. Dr Andrew Cuthbertson of CSL adds: "This is one of the major threats to our way of life."

Dr Graeme Laver asks the tough questions. "Who identifies these people? Who says you can have the drug and you can't? And who is going to stop the person who has not got the drug murdering the person who has got it for his share of the drug?"

Indonesia will be the litmus test to gauge public reaction if the pandemic happens. That country is already facing a fuel price rise crisis with the doubling of petrol prices and trebling of cooking kerosene. On top of that, we have another terrorist attack in Bali. If those poor people can withstand all of that, then we should be able to cope.